8īirthdays are a time to reflect on the good and bad that has taken place in the past and what the future might hold. 7 With the death toll from tobacco estimated to reach 10 million annually by 2020, it is likely that Marlboro's next 50 years could prove to be its most deadly. According to a recent Philip Morris International report, Marlboro is considered the greatest asset of the company with projected strong growth predicted for the future worldwide. 6 However, merely considering the number of deaths attributable to Marlboro in the United States over the past half century is surely a huge underestimate of the total death toll from Marlboro, given the brands position as the world's best selling cigarette. More Americans have died or will die because of Marlboro than US soldiers who have died in all foreign wars combined.

It is important to recognise that the estimates presented in this paper are subject to limitations including the length of the lag period used, the amount smoked by Marlboro smokers compared to other smokers, and brand switching to and from Marlboro products however, there is no getting around the overall conclusion that Marlboro is by far and away the most lethal consumer product ever produced. Put another way, in 2005, Marlboro is estimated to account for 30% of all smoking‐attributable deaths in the United States. Marlboro cigarettes have killed more than 2.3 million Americans since 1955 with another expected 1.6 million deaths in the next 10 years. The market share for Marlboro steadily increased to over 10% by 1971, to over 20% by 1983, to over 30% by 1995, and to over 40% by 2005. Future Marlboro attributable deaths assume the Marlboro market share and total smoking attributable deaths remain at the 2005 levels for the next 10 years.

Marlboro attributable deaths assume a 10 year lag period. Mortality estimates from 1955 to 1963 assumed the same linear constant change.

Cumulative smoking‐attributable mortality data from 1964 to 1985 were available (see Warner and Murt 4) and annual estimates were interpolated to reflect a linear increase during that period with the conditions that the cumulative total equals the published total of 5.7 million and the 1985 data point equals the published total of 390000. Years in this period without a direct estimate were interpolated between data points. Data from 2000–2005 are assumed to equal the 1995–1999 period. Tobacco attributable mortality data come from published estimates for 1985, 1989, 1990–1994, and 1995–1999 (see 3). Marlboro market share from 2000 to 2005 is estimated from the October 2005 IRI report (see Prudential Equity Group 1). Marlboro market share from 1955 to 1999 is obtained from various industry documents compiled by Goldstein (see Goldstein 5). Future expected Marlboro‐attributable deaths are estimated by multiplying the constant tobacco‐attributable mortality in a given year between 20 by the Marlboro market share 10 years previous and summing across years.Įstimated number of Marlboro attributable deaths assuming a 10 year lag periodĮstimated future Marlboro attributable deaths

The total number of tobacco‐attributable deaths to Marlboro smokers is the sum of the annual number of deaths. 5 Future US deaths from Marlboro cigarettes are based on recent estimates of smoking attributable deaths and Marlboro market share. Marlboro's share of the cigarette market in a given year between 19 was based on reports compiled from industry documents and financial reports. Mortality estimates for the period between 1955 to 1963 assume the same linear constant change. The cumulative US tobacco‐attributable mortality data from 1964 to 1985 (5.7 million attributable deaths) were available 4 and annual estimates were interpolated to reflect a linear increase during that period, with the conditions that the cumulative total equals 5.7 million and the 1985 data point equals the published total of 390 000. 2, 3 If data were not available for a given year estimates were interpolated between data points. The number of tobacco deaths was derived from published estimates for 1985, 1988, 1990–1994, and 1995–1999. In order to calculate the fraction of deaths attributable to Marlboro cigarettes in the United States over the past 50 years (table 1 1), ), we first determined the number of smoking attributable deaths in a given year and then multiplied this by the estimated market share for Marlboro cigarettes in the 10 years before, reflecting a 10 year latent period between smoking and disease.

Marlboro cigarettes types